Poker Discussion: The Negative Impact of Variance

As poker players we have all dealt with the various forms of variance. Sometimes the outcome favours you while other times it comes in the form of a devastating blow. It is a powerful force. Ask any serious poker player and without a moments hesitation they can recount dozens of instances of times they were crushed by a 2-outter on the river or a runner-runner for a flush that squashed their set they hit on the flop.

Depending on the type of person you happen to be, the manner by which you respond to great disappointment will vary. While some can control their rage internally, others tend to explode externally with verbal and physical releases. Either way, it is clear that anger management is as vast and varying as the people who it is happening to. What seems common for all, however, is the fact that a devastating loss (from a statistical anomaly) is far more memorable in the long run than the accumulation of positive outcomes which are statistically "expected".

Poker is the perfect example to prove this. In a situation where two players are down to the river card and no more betting is to occur (i.e. players are all-in), assume one player is 95% to 5% favoured to win the hand. If you repeat this hand 100 times, mathematically the underdog will win 5 times. In the 95 times that the favourite's hand holds up no one acts surprised and temperaments are kept in check. When, on the other hand, the suck out does occur, the winner feels that the Poker God's are shining on him while the loser feels disgusted and betrayed by, well, basically everything. Suck outs are called suck outs for a reason: they suck.

The main point to recognize here is how when expectations are met we derive very minimal amounts of satisfaction compared to the amount of emotional displacement we derive from unexpected outcomes (statistical anomalies). Since only the rare outcomes truly move us and shake our core, and since we tend to magnify the negative over the positive, we find that our memories stay very fresh when it comes to incidences of our own bad luck. Over time the player who loses that 95:5 race will recall the circumstance much more vividly than the player who happened to pull off the amazing suck out.

Many forums, including this one, have had to either ban or create separate sections exclusively for "bad-beat" and "online poker is rigged" posts due to huge amounts of complaints from players. Perhaps the most prevalent psychological explanation for this is because of the adhesive nature of bad beats and the way they accumulate and stick in a player's mind. Over a 10 hour session a player could probably recount 75% of their bad beats but less than 10% of the hands where their lead held up. Obviously, when you expand this phenomenon across the poker spectrum you can see why people tend to feel this way. Multiply this effect by the increased frequency of hands played per hour and the result is obvious.

So why am I talking about a topic that has been beaten to death online and in personal conversation? Simply put, it is because I want to reference how this same mentality can and does effect people's lives and their overall disposition.

Most people tend to live their daily lives experiencing the good/bad/neutral events of their day from moment to moment and think that their emotional response to the day is re actively dependent on what is going on around them. In a poker sense, they are responding to each event as if it were another card exposed on the board.

For example, while late for a meeting you rush to the elevator only to find that it just started to ascend a split second before you got there. Bad beat. Variance. You become upset. Your response to this situation is likened to an unfortunate turn card - let's say. So because of this your overall disposition leans toward the negative as it would when a bad card hits.

Now lets rewind. You are late for a meeting and you run to the elevator only to find that it's completely vacant and waiting patiently for it's next passenger. Hey, that's you! Your lucky day. Or is it? Not really. Why? Because this is where you expected the elevator to be just like you expected your 95:5 lead to hold on the river. So instead of taking away a positive and affirming response to this (unnoticed) good fortune, you view the situation as neutral. So something as mundane as getting an elevator when you really need one will yield either a neutral or a negative outcome for you. Clearly something is missing. If a simple daily occurrence either offers us nothing or increases to our irritability then the choices are bad and blah. In this case blah>bad but it still seems like an overall losing proposition. -EV if you ask me.

So why does it happen like this? In my opinion it is because these occurrences, which essentially equate to all of the things we do in our waking life (sleep is a completely separate topic), are subconsciously affecting us and retroactively leading us towards a change in overall disposition. If instead we choose to view as many things as possible with a proactive mental state (i.e. we consistently monitor our environment and disposition) we will find that eventually our responses to mundane events will become positive>neutral>negative.

Over an extended period of time, with practice and objective observation, the negative tends to diminish in magnitude and the results of our daily routine become positive>neutral. In essence, we learn to view our bad beats and missed elevators as occurrences that, as mathematical variances proves time and time again, are simply a form of our manifest destiny. What once would have subconsciously forced you into an increased state of irritability now starts to become elements of your life that happened and contribute to your overall life story.

Learning to deal with things that one cannot control in life, such as variance, inevitably will lead to a life of complete understanding and contentment. In less words, to appreciate the small victories while eliminating the disdain normally associated with uncontrollable bad luck is the best medicine for handling the bad beats we sometimes are dealt.

Good luck at the tables.